Well the most accurate polling company in Canada has published it's polling results and if you look at last years election they pretty much called it within one percentage point, these are the most accurate pollsters in Canada.
First the Good
*The Conservatives after throwing all the money they could at Quebec have suceeded in that region as many thought, however it appears their budget outside of Quebec connected with nobody. It also appears the Conservatives still have not gotten past their last Election numbers with 36 percent.
Taking these numbers into Professor Antweiler's Projection project it predicts something very odd.
The Seat Total if an election was held today would be
Lib-123(+20)
CPC-117 (-7)
BQ-48 (-3)
NDP-19(-10)
IND-1
Of Course I can't believe those numbers because it fails to take into account Quebec.
If I Insert the Quebec Numbers I get this
BQ-40 (-11)
CPC-17 (+7)
LIB-17 (+4)
IND-1
The Conservatives would gain off the bloc and despite the liberals dropping they actually gain seats off the bloc's lost popular vote. The Conservatives would pretty much win in most of the same places the ADQ one like Trois Rivieres and the Gaspe area, the Liberals would gain four federalist seats.
In the Atlantic the seat count would be
LIB-21 (+1)
CPC-6 (-3)
NDP-5 (+2)
The Liberals would win back Tobique-Mactaquac and the Conservatives would lose both Peter MacKay and Gerald Keddy to the NDP. However, the poll fails to take into account Elizabeth May in Peter MacKay's riding so we don't know what that means.
Ontario's seat count is even stranger
LIB-53 (-1)
CPC-48 (+8)
NDP-5 (-7)
The NDP would be decimated and only would hold on to Layton's seat, the two windsor seats, Christopherson's seat and Angus. What's really intersting is the seats the Conservatives will pick up.
Ottawa Centre
Hamilton Mountain
London-Fanshawe
Kenora
London West
Brant
Huron-Bruce
Oakville
Halton
Most of these areas is exactly where the conservatives are targeting kind of odd, but really neat none the less.
Then we go into the west and here it the machine spits something weird out
CPC-36 (-12)
LIB-13 (+8)
NDP-7 (+4)
so it's more like
CPC-39 (-9)
LIB-11 (+6)
NDP-6 (+3)
Okay first I'm calling BS on a few ridings because I personally think the liberals will not win a thing in Alberta, not in this climate, because it predicts they win Edmonton East and Centre and while I personally think it's possible, I have to take into account BC region is offset by this poll. Liberals will not win two edmonton seats NDP is not going to win Selkirk because they don't have Schreyer this time. I'm keeping the one NDP seat in strathcona because i think Duncan can win and there were some seats in SK that switched hands.
Now we go into BC. Which again is going to be fixed as well
CPC-21 (+4)
LIB-15 (+6)
NDP-0 (-10)
First of all this is rediculous because there are two seats I know the NDP is not going to lose no matter how bad it does and that is BC Southern Interior and Vancouver East. But I think they do have the possibility to lost the rest of those. We'll put that at
CPC-21 (+4)
LIB-13 (+4)
NDP-2 (-8)
Territories
We have no polling info on the territories but I will say that we have a retention
2 LIB
1 NDP
TOTAL COUNT
CPC-131 (+7)
LIB-117 (+14)
BQ-40 (-11)
NDP-19 (-10)
IND-1
Well this seems like a very realistic result, the Conservatives will win more seats because of the publics Idea that Stephen Harper is doing a good job even though I don't believe it, The Liberals will win seats in small areas around the country despite the fact they do lose a few to the tories in Ontario, The Bloc gets spanked and the NDP is dejected. So yes we end up with another minority government led by Harper which I personally think will be the end result.
3 comments:
Horah for the two-party system.
Very fair assesment.
I think the BC numbers are a little unrealistic for the NDP, but I also can't wrap my head around the Tories making major gains in Quebec neither.
To me, it seems like if an election was called today, there would be very little change.
Yes breaking it down into regions gives a more accurate result but you also have to take into account individual canidates appeal, which is much more of a factor in close races. Garth will win Halton as a Liberal, no question. Huron Bruce is retained depending on who is the candidate etc. Also in close races one slip up nationally is more likely to have much more of an effect. Also I would place bets that we win two seats in Alberta next time around. I think a lot of Conservatives will stay home because HArper has esentially abandoned them.
So that would be 121 Libs to 127 Cons, essentialy a tie. I don't know enough about individual ridings to make further comment but these numbers say either party can win it based on individual candidates and not screwing up the federal campaign.
I really think it could go either way but since Dion has not been getting the same press time as Harper, which he is guarenteed in an election campaign, and it's easier to criticize the sitting government, which tends to drop in the polls during campaigns, I would call this election for the Liberals.
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