Poll Breakdown: I love Doing These!

Recent Ipsos Reid Poll Results as gotten from the new polls

Seat By Seat Breakdowns Courtesy of Werner Antweiler's UBC Election Forecaster

Atlantic

LIB:21 (+1)
CPC:8 (-1)
NDP:3

Not much change here except Tobique-Mactaquac going back to the Liberals.

Quebec

Here is what Quebec Would look like next parliament according to Ipsos

BQ:32 (-19)
CPC:23 (+13)
LIB:19 (+6)
IND:1

Again Huge change here as the Liberal regain their traditional Federalist Seats and the Conservatives win in Rural Quebec.

Ontario

Ontario is kind of surprising but I'm going to assume this is correct as most of the seats are NDP to Liberal ones

LIB:59 (+5)
CPC:41 (+1)
NDP:6 (-6)

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Here we go again

CPC:16 (-4)
LIB:8 (+3)
NDP:4 (+1)

Alberta

No Change

CPC:28

British Columbia

CPC:18 (+1)
LIB:13 (+4)
NDP:5 (-5)

And lets keep the territories at

2 LIB
1 NDP

FINAL TOTAL

CPC: 134 (+10)
LIB: 122 (+19)
BQ: 32 (-19)
NDP: 19 (-10)
IND: 1

So once again, Stephen Harper and the Liberals Gain from the polls and the BLOC and the NDP lose seats for yet a second poll in a row, this means only one thing. Harper if he's looking at a majority government is not going to get it in an election he'll only succed at increasing his seat total but that's it. One thing is for certain now Bloc and NDP are definitely losing seats but could the liberals just gain off the NDP and BQ losses despite not having the best leader? I think so.

R.I.P: June Callwood 1924-2007

It is with great shame that we lost two great people from this world, the first Kurt Vonnegut, was one of the greatest novelists ever to live, and just today, June Callwood, Canada's Social Conscience has passed away at age 82. She had a remarkable life and because of her she faught for many things even before it was fashionable, she had a strong belief in what right, she tried to get health care and help for poor homeless youth, when that didn't work out. She founded a house for theme to stay in. She spoke out against sexual violence, domestic abuse and on teen pregnancy. She founded hostels for abused women and a center for Pregnant Teens. She also took in people who were dying of AIDS in 1988 when there was little options for them. Callwood used her riches for the benefit of the people society looked down upon. She fought for Women's Rights, Gay Rights and ever other social justice cause you can think of. Through it all, she never gave up. She fought for what she believed in and for that she was a great canadian and a wonderful woman. She will be missed.

Breaking News: Louise Thibault resigns from the Bloc Quebecois Caucus!

Louise Thibault, as found out by macleans, has just said she is going to leave the Bloc Quebecois caucus, this is quite surprising considering that she was a bit of a social conservative, it is quite possible she might have left do to social issues but currently, we don't know anything.

In Defense of Belinda Stronach

I was upset with the news that Belinda Stronach is leaving politics today, she was a very interesting woman and I was glad to see someone with her magnitude (no pun intended) in the house of commons. However, Magna has just purchased Chrysler and she feels her skills could be better used in the business world. First of all, there is one thing I think of when describing Belinda Stronach. Courageous and above all she had balls (in the courageous sense I mean). When she crossed over to the Liberal Party she took many knocks and even after that period of discontent people bashed her with sexist comments and you know what, she could have cried, she could have ran off into a corner. But she didn't, she stood there and she took everything that people said about her and didn't pay attention to it. To me she is courageous for taking the stands she did and being true to herself. I know she's a controversial figure, but anybody who can still stand on their two feet and ignore those kinds of hateful comments is a great person in my book.

SES Poll Out: This is a big one.

Well the most accurate polling company in Canada has published it's polling results and if you look at last years election they pretty much called it within one percentage point, these are the most accurate pollsters in Canada.

First the Good

*The Conservatives after throwing all the money they could at Quebec have suceeded in that region as many thought, however it appears their budget outside of Quebec connected with nobody. It also appears the Conservatives still have not gotten past their last Election numbers with 36 percent.

Taking these numbers into Professor Antweiler's Projection project it predicts something very odd.

The Seat Total if an election was held today would be

Lib-123(+20)
CPC-117 (-7)
BQ-48 (-3)
NDP-19(-10)
IND-1

Of Course I can't believe those numbers because it fails to take into account Quebec.
If I Insert the Quebec Numbers I get this

BQ-40 (-11)
CPC-17 (+7)
LIB-17 (+4)
IND-1

The Conservatives would gain off the bloc and despite the liberals dropping they actually gain seats off the bloc's lost popular vote. The Conservatives would pretty much win in most of the same places the ADQ one like Trois Rivieres and the Gaspe area, the Liberals would gain four federalist seats.

In the Atlantic the seat count would be

LIB-21 (+1)
CPC-6 (-3)
NDP-5 (+2)

The Liberals would win back Tobique-Mactaquac and the Conservatives would lose both Peter MacKay and Gerald Keddy to the NDP. However, the poll fails to take into account Elizabeth May in Peter MacKay's riding so we don't know what that means.

Ontario's seat count is even stranger

LIB-53 (-1)
CPC-48 (+8)
NDP-5 (-7)

The NDP would be decimated and only would hold on to Layton's seat, the two windsor seats, Christopherson's seat and Angus. What's really intersting is the seats the Conservatives will pick up.

Ottawa Centre
Hamilton Mountain
London-Fanshawe
Kenora
London West
Brant
Huron-Bruce
Oakville
Halton

Most of these areas is exactly where the conservatives are targeting kind of odd, but really neat none the less.

Then we go into the west and here it the machine spits something weird out

CPC-36 (-12)
LIB-13 (+8)
NDP-7 (+4)

so it's more like

CPC-39 (-9)
LIB-11 (+6)
NDP-6 (+3)

Okay first I'm calling BS on a few ridings because I personally think the liberals will not win a thing in Alberta, not in this climate, because it predicts they win Edmonton East and Centre and while I personally think it's possible, I have to take into account BC region is offset by this poll. Liberals will not win two edmonton seats NDP is not going to win Selkirk because they don't have Schreyer this time. I'm keeping the one NDP seat in strathcona because i think Duncan can win and there were some seats in SK that switched hands.

Now we go into BC. Which again is going to be fixed as well

CPC-21 (+4)
LIB-15 (+6)
NDP-0 (-10)

First of all this is rediculous because there are two seats I know the NDP is not going to lose no matter how bad it does and that is BC Southern Interior and Vancouver East. But I think they do have the possibility to lost the rest of those. We'll put that at

CPC-21 (+4)
LIB-13 (+4)
NDP-2 (-8)

Territories

We have no polling info on the territories but I will say that we have a retention

2 LIB
1 NDP

TOTAL COUNT
CPC-131 (+7)
LIB-117 (+14)
BQ-40 (-11)
NDP-19 (-10)
IND-1

Well this seems like a very realistic result, the Conservatives will win more seats because of the publics Idea that Stephen Harper is doing a good job even though I don't believe it, The Liberals will win seats in small areas around the country despite the fact they do lose a few to the tories in Ontario, The Bloc gets spanked and the NDP is dejected. So yes we end up with another minority government led by Harper which I personally think will be the end result.