Well the most accurate polling company in Canada has published it's polling results and if you look at last years election they pretty much called it within one percentage point, these are the most accurate pollsters in Canada.
First the Good
*The Conservatives are down in Quebec and have hit 17% and this is an 11% drop after the last poll.
*Green Party appears to be stealing support from the Conservatives
Taking these numbers into Professor Antweiler's Projection project it predicts something very odd.
The Seat Total if an election was held today would be
Lib-130(+27)
CPC-104 (-20)
BQ-47 (-4)
NDP-26 (-3)
IND-1
If I Insert the Quebec Numbers I get this, as well the total doesn't take into account the west.
BQ-47 (-4)
LIB-21 (+8)
CPC-6 (-4)
IND-1
The Conservatives would lose 4 seats back to the Bloc and the Liberals would gain 7 of the Bloc and 1 off the conservatives, the math is really odd here but this predicition has Lawrence Cannon losing his seat.
In the Atlantic the seat count would be
LIB-21 (+1)
CPC-8 (-1)
NDP-3
The Liberals would win back Tobique-Mactaquac. To me that is what I think will be the one battleground seat in atlantic canada that also included Newfoundland and Labrador.
Ontario's seat count is even stranger
LIB-52 (-2)
CPC-40
NDP-14 (+2)
The NDP would win both of the Thunder Bay Seats but that's about it not much else happening in Ontario.
Then we go into the west and here it the machine spits this out
CPC-38 (-10)
LIB-12 (+7)
NDP-6 (+3)
Now we go into BC.
CPC-16 (-1)
LIB-11 (+2)
NDP-9 (-1)
Territories
We have no polling info on the territories but I will say that we have a retention
2 LIB
1 NDP
TOTAL COUNT
LIB-119 (+16)
CPC-108 (-16)
BQ-47 (-4)
NDP-33 (+4)
IND-1
Well this seems like a very realistic result.
3 comments:
Glad to see these positive numbers. Hopefully this will stifle some of the criticism Dion has been receiving from inside the party.
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