First Ballot Results and Thoughts

Michael Ignatieff 1,412 29.3%
Bob Rae 977 20.3%
Stephane Dion 856 17.8%
Gerard Kennedy 854 17.7%
Ken Dryden 238 4.9%
Scott Brison 192 4.0%
Joe Volpe 156 3.2%
Martha Hall Findlay 130 2.7%

Well now, we finally have the results in and there are a few shockers Ignatieff has been held under 30 percent, he right now does not have the momentum according to our estimates we made on Wikipedia Ignatieff was expected to have close to 1,607 delegates voting in favor, he ended up with close almost 195 short of that tally. Bob Rae was estimated to have 1,029 delegates according to wikipedia and that number was within one hundred and the estimates were off by 52, But what seems to be really surprising is Gerard Kennedy who was expected to have 931 delegates but was off by 77, Stephane Dion was expected to have 883 delegates and the projections were off by 21. This means that There was a few things we can take from this, Kennedy and Ignatieff lost support among ex-officios. We will have to see what happens with Martha Findlay and what impact the Volpe movement will have to Rae. The next ballot is going to really tell us where things stand. We must keep in mind that Ignatieff and Rae both have lost the momentum, Rae is going to be hurt by non-stop negative attention to the fact he barely spoke any french tonight and Ignatieff is going to be hurt by the fact he underperformed on the first ballot. Clearly the candidate who has momentum is Stephane Dion, although he and Kennedy are separated by just 2 votes, Dion has won the most coveted place on the ballot at the moment and is in position to win, The meetings that have occured between Dion and Kennedy likely have been intense and I am almost certain one is going to back the other depending on what happens. We will see what Scott Brison, Ken Dryden and Hall Findlay will do. Dryden has been a wild card, but to me I just don't know if I see him going to rae or ignatieff. But we're going to find out soon exactly where those delegates will be Going.

But truth be told let me some it up

Dion=Big Mo
Igantieff, Rae=Huge Dissapointment, Will be confronted with negative stories on them tommorow all through the voting.
Kennedy=Slight dissapointment
Brison and Dryden-Weighing their options.