Here is what I think the Liberals need to do if they want to stop becoming a laughing stock that they already are.
I remember not so long ago that Stephen Harper was in this exact same position, but instead of repeating the old tired liberals are corrupt mantra, he basically was able to offer a lot of policy ideas and people flocked to it because they saw someone who had a vision for Canada "at the time". It's quite funny that the Liberals Popularity is much better then Dion's and Harper is much more popular than his own party.
We cannot afford as a party to have an election at this time, we are in terrible shape and we will get slaughtered if we insist on going into an election, I would suggest Mr. Dion either vote for the throne speech or if not then mass-abstain from it. Secondly, Mr. Dion has to stop being on the defensive and start coming out with policy and try to paint Mr. Harper as somebody who is visionless and a panderer.
I think the Liberals seems to be popular outside of Quebec and Alberta. They aren't in bad shape in those areas but they can still improve. In Quebec however it is where they are really going to have to shape up or ship out. Dion is obviously stuck on the federalism issue and even if he tried to change his views now it would not look genuine. He needs to clearly state that he believes that Quebec has a strong place within Canada and he needs to say that the era of Sovereignty vs Federalism is over and it is time to move on from that debate, He has to give the impression to the Quebecois that he is willing to sit down and listen to what they have to say.
It is going to take at least a year or two to try and win back the hearts and minds of the Quebecois and the rest of Canada, we have no choice but to wait it out and go back to the drawing board. I think that the entire Quebec Wing of the party needs to be completely reformed and fixed up. We need to open more offices as well in Quebec. Dion needs to start raising money online and start trying to appeal to the grassroots of the party. The Liberals need to stop this Top to bottom management style, it's hurt the party so much and it leaves the wrong impression. This is a party run by the people and not run by one person.
This needs to serve as a guiding lesson for now.
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Vote Against MMP
Over the past few days many people have stood up with regards to the referendum debate and have basically said that we should vote for this system. Well to me personally I say no. We have only one pledge from a party leader so far that he will allow a party convention to choose the list of Candidates that they will run and that is Howard Hampton. I am assuming that John Tory who recently declared in a story in one of the major papers that he had the same concerns that I had regarding this system.
The truth is the MMP-system is a flawed voting system, it rewards the Leaders and Party Hacks of every party and it allows them to continue to force things to go their way or the highway. And even if this passes what is not to say that the major parties will not follow the Hampton Precedent? As much as I dislike the FPTP system, I feel that MMP is inadequate. I feel that personally we should have Instant-Runoff Voting. It works in Australia and I do personally feel that people need to achieve 50% to win, I feel it's only fair that way.
The truth is the MMP-system is a flawed voting system, it rewards the Leaders and Party Hacks of every party and it allows them to continue to force things to go their way or the highway. And even if this passes what is not to say that the major parties will not follow the Hampton Precedent? As much as I dislike the FPTP system, I feel that MMP is inadequate. I feel that personally we should have Instant-Runoff Voting. It works in Australia and I do personally feel that people need to achieve 50% to win, I feel it's only fair that way.
Monday, September 17, 2007
My Thoughts on the By-elections
Let's be honest folks this was a clusterfuck of enormous proportions, this by-election never should have been lost but really I think it had to do with the following.
1. Stephane Dion's candidate, Jocelyn Coulon was badly hurt by perceived anti-semetic writings. It was a really bad decision to put a candidate who had controversy with the Jewish Community up for election.
2. Jack Layton had the best candidate he could get to run for him in that riding and rightfully so, because I would bet you my life savings that if Mulcair did not run, The Liberals would have had this riding. I am almost certain they would have.
3. Is this an indictment of Stephane Dion's leadership? Yes and no, Obviously Dion made a terrible decision by putting up a Candidate like Coulon. However, I again do believe that had Mulcair not been the NDP Candidate, he would not have won. That being said, I think that Dion took the high road and even saw a silver lining in this, as much as I hate having another conservative elected, I would take a federalist over a sovereignist any day.
Stephane Dion is that rare person who has unbridled optimism despite what people say about him. So while this was a terrible terrible error, I am sure that Dion can rebound from this. However, I am really hoping the Liberals do not want to go into an election right now. It would be a huge mistake, We need to see the Conservatives make a big mistake and so far they aren't. However, I personally feel that Harper is not going to make a move until after October 10, that's after the Ontario Provincial Election, BTW.
1. Stephane Dion's candidate, Jocelyn Coulon was badly hurt by perceived anti-semetic writings. It was a really bad decision to put a candidate who had controversy with the Jewish Community up for election.
2. Jack Layton had the best candidate he could get to run for him in that riding and rightfully so, because I would bet you my life savings that if Mulcair did not run, The Liberals would have had this riding. I am almost certain they would have.
3. Is this an indictment of Stephane Dion's leadership? Yes and no, Obviously Dion made a terrible decision by putting up a Candidate like Coulon. However, I again do believe that had Mulcair not been the NDP Candidate, he would not have won. That being said, I think that Dion took the high road and even saw a silver lining in this, as much as I hate having another conservative elected, I would take a federalist over a sovereignist any day.
Stephane Dion is that rare person who has unbridled optimism despite what people say about him. So while this was a terrible terrible error, I am sure that Dion can rebound from this. However, I am really hoping the Liberals do not want to go into an election right now. It would be a huge mistake, We need to see the Conservatives make a big mistake and so far they aren't. However, I personally feel that Harper is not going to make a move until after October 10, that's after the Ontario Provincial Election, BTW.
Thursday, September 06, 2007
What Was Brian Mulroney Thinking?
Shame on Brian Mulroney, He should know better then to kick somebody who cannot speak for himself and cannot defend himself. Mr. Mulroney should know better then to speak ill of the dead, and certainly it's even more shameful he did it to someone who cannot even respond. I admit Pierre Elliott Trudeau was not a perfect man, he was a great politician and Leader, but for Brian Mulroney to say what he did is absolutely shameless and uncalled for.
What's The Deal With John Tory?
I'm back from Summer Vacation and ready to blog, I know blogging can be very difficult considering you have to keep working at it. I haven't found much to post about until today, when I've officially realized that John Tory has completely lost his mind.
To be quite honest, as a member of the Liberal Party, I seriously believed that John Tory hitting the liberals over the head with the Broken Promises was really going to do some severe damage, so yes I was quite fearful of what Tory could do. But, instead Tory has run a very sloppy campaign so far. He's had a case of what we like to call foot in mouth disease and cannot seem to get his foot out of his mouth. But, even before that I would say Tory has made some boneheaded moves.
The first boneheaded move came when he chose to run in Toronto, Though John Tory kept his word, he knows damn well it was by far idiotic, I really think that Toronto has changed heavily since the Tories were swept out of Toronto in 2003, The Federal Tories have not held a seat in Urban Toronto in almost 10 years or so and the Provincial Tories are hoping to not start a repeat of that record. If John Tory had run in his old riding of Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey (Now Dufferin-Caledon), he would not have had to worry about campaiging in a very liberal city like Toronto, instead he did just that. Don Valley West, the riding John Tory is running in, does have a bit of a libertarian streak to it and I admit Tory did not pick downtown Toronto, but this is still going to be very very close.
The other boneheaded move by Tory? His opponent is Kathleen Wynne who just so happens to be the Minister of Education, with John Tory now bringing up the Funding Religious Schools Argument, Wynne will likely be able to use her knowledge in the portfolio of Education, to destroy Tory's arguments on this. I know that Provincially, the tories are not as hated as the federal tories are in toronto. But still, this does not Mean John Tory will win this in a walk.
Then Come the Gaffes.
Gaffe #1: Tory Refers to the University of Ottawa as the University of Zero
Gaffe #2: Tory Claims Standardized Testing Can't Be Trusted Because of a Liberal Conspiracy
Gaffe #3: Tory says: Creationism is Awesome and should be taught in Faith-Based Schools!
Jaysus Leweezus, Hasn't John Tory done more then enough to insult the education system the past few days? These Gaffes not only show that John Tory cannot control his mouth, it also shows what Little Knowledge he has of the Education System. McGuinty should make it a priority to hammer this home in the debates. He needs to make the point that Tory is completely oblivious on education and that he doesn't seem to know how the heck the education system works.
I should also ask why Mr. Tory is so hellbent and headstrong on bringing back a failed policy of the Harris Tory era? Somebody please tell me, What is the deal with John Tory?
To be quite honest, as a member of the Liberal Party, I seriously believed that John Tory hitting the liberals over the head with the Broken Promises was really going to do some severe damage, so yes I was quite fearful of what Tory could do. But, instead Tory has run a very sloppy campaign so far. He's had a case of what we like to call foot in mouth disease and cannot seem to get his foot out of his mouth. But, even before that I would say Tory has made some boneheaded moves.
The first boneheaded move came when he chose to run in Toronto, Though John Tory kept his word, he knows damn well it was by far idiotic, I really think that Toronto has changed heavily since the Tories were swept out of Toronto in 2003, The Federal Tories have not held a seat in Urban Toronto in almost 10 years or so and the Provincial Tories are hoping to not start a repeat of that record. If John Tory had run in his old riding of Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey (Now Dufferin-Caledon), he would not have had to worry about campaiging in a very liberal city like Toronto, instead he did just that. Don Valley West, the riding John Tory is running in, does have a bit of a libertarian streak to it and I admit Tory did not pick downtown Toronto, but this is still going to be very very close.
The other boneheaded move by Tory? His opponent is Kathleen Wynne who just so happens to be the Minister of Education, with John Tory now bringing up the Funding Religious Schools Argument, Wynne will likely be able to use her knowledge in the portfolio of Education, to destroy Tory's arguments on this. I know that Provincially, the tories are not as hated as the federal tories are in toronto. But still, this does not Mean John Tory will win this in a walk.
Then Come the Gaffes.
Gaffe #1: Tory Refers to the University of Ottawa as the University of Zero
Gaffe #2: Tory Claims Standardized Testing Can't Be Trusted Because of a Liberal Conspiracy
Gaffe #3: Tory says: Creationism is Awesome and should be taught in Faith-Based Schools!
Jaysus Leweezus, Hasn't John Tory done more then enough to insult the education system the past few days? These Gaffes not only show that John Tory cannot control his mouth, it also shows what Little Knowledge he has of the Education System. McGuinty should make it a priority to hammer this home in the debates. He needs to make the point that Tory is completely oblivious on education and that he doesn't seem to know how the heck the education system works.
I should also ask why Mr. Tory is so hellbent and headstrong on bringing back a failed policy of the Harris Tory era? Somebody please tell me, What is the deal with John Tory?
Thursday, May 10, 2007
NEW SES POLL: Liberals lead by one
Well the most accurate polling company in Canada has published it's polling results and if you look at last years election they pretty much called it within one percentage point, these are the most accurate pollsters in Canada.
First the Good
*The Conservatives are down in Quebec and have hit 17% and this is an 11% drop after the last poll.
*Green Party appears to be stealing support from the Conservatives
Taking these numbers into Professor Antweiler's Projection project it predicts something very odd.
The Seat Total if an election was held today would be
Lib-130(+27)
CPC-104 (-20)
BQ-47 (-4)
NDP-26 (-3)
IND-1
If I Insert the Quebec Numbers I get this, as well the total doesn't take into account the west.
BQ-47 (-4)
LIB-21 (+8)
CPC-6 (-4)
IND-1
The Conservatives would lose 4 seats back to the Bloc and the Liberals would gain 7 of the Bloc and 1 off the conservatives, the math is really odd here but this predicition has Lawrence Cannon losing his seat.
In the Atlantic the seat count would be
LIB-21 (+1)
CPC-8 (-1)
NDP-3
The Liberals would win back Tobique-Mactaquac. To me that is what I think will be the one battleground seat in atlantic canada that also included Newfoundland and Labrador.
Ontario's seat count is even stranger
LIB-52 (-2)
CPC-40
NDP-14 (+2)
The NDP would win both of the Thunder Bay Seats but that's about it not much else happening in Ontario.
Then we go into the west and here it the machine spits this out
CPC-38 (-10)
LIB-12 (+7)
NDP-6 (+3)
Now we go into BC.
CPC-16 (-1)
LIB-11 (+2)
NDP-9 (-1)
Territories
We have no polling info on the territories but I will say that we have a retention
2 LIB
1 NDP
TOTAL COUNT
LIB-119 (+16)
CPC-108 (-16)
BQ-47 (-4)
NDP-33 (+4)
IND-1
Well this seems like a very realistic result.
First the Good
*The Conservatives are down in Quebec and have hit 17% and this is an 11% drop after the last poll.
*Green Party appears to be stealing support from the Conservatives
Taking these numbers into Professor Antweiler's Projection project it predicts something very odd.
The Seat Total if an election was held today would be
Lib-130(+27)
CPC-104 (-20)
BQ-47 (-4)
NDP-26 (-3)
IND-1
If I Insert the Quebec Numbers I get this, as well the total doesn't take into account the west.
BQ-47 (-4)
LIB-21 (+8)
CPC-6 (-4)
IND-1
The Conservatives would lose 4 seats back to the Bloc and the Liberals would gain 7 of the Bloc and 1 off the conservatives, the math is really odd here but this predicition has Lawrence Cannon losing his seat.
In the Atlantic the seat count would be
LIB-21 (+1)
CPC-8 (-1)
NDP-3
The Liberals would win back Tobique-Mactaquac. To me that is what I think will be the one battleground seat in atlantic canada that also included Newfoundland and Labrador.
Ontario's seat count is even stranger
LIB-52 (-2)
CPC-40
NDP-14 (+2)
The NDP would win both of the Thunder Bay Seats but that's about it not much else happening in Ontario.
Then we go into the west and here it the machine spits this out
CPC-38 (-10)
LIB-12 (+7)
NDP-6 (+3)
Now we go into BC.
CPC-16 (-1)
LIB-11 (+2)
NDP-9 (-1)
Territories
We have no polling info on the territories but I will say that we have a retention
2 LIB
1 NDP
TOTAL COUNT
LIB-119 (+16)
CPC-108 (-16)
BQ-47 (-4)
NDP-33 (+4)
IND-1
Well this seems like a very realistic result.
Saturday, April 14, 2007
Poll Breakdown: I love Doing These!
Recent Ipsos Reid Poll Results as gotten from the new polls
Seat By Seat Breakdowns Courtesy of Werner Antweiler's UBC Election Forecaster
Atlantic
LIB:21 (+1)
CPC:8 (-1)
NDP:3
Not much change here except Tobique-Mactaquac going back to the Liberals.
Quebec
Here is what Quebec Would look like next parliament according to Ipsos
BQ:32 (-19)
CPC:23 (+13)
LIB:19 (+6)
IND:1
Again Huge change here as the Liberal regain their traditional Federalist Seats and the Conservatives win in Rural Quebec.
Ontario
Ontario is kind of surprising but I'm going to assume this is correct as most of the seats are NDP to Liberal ones
LIB:59 (+5)
CPC:41 (+1)
NDP:6 (-6)
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Here we go again
CPC:16 (-4)
LIB:8 (+3)
NDP:4 (+1)
Alberta
No Change
CPC:28
British Columbia
CPC:18 (+1)
LIB:13 (+4)
NDP:5 (-5)
And lets keep the territories at
2 LIB
1 NDP
FINAL TOTAL
CPC: 134 (+10)
LIB: 122 (+19)
BQ: 32 (-19)
NDP: 19 (-10)
IND: 1
So once again, Stephen Harper and the Liberals Gain from the polls and the BLOC and the NDP lose seats for yet a second poll in a row, this means only one thing. Harper if he's looking at a majority government is not going to get it in an election he'll only succed at increasing his seat total but that's it. One thing is for certain now Bloc and NDP are definitely losing seats but could the liberals just gain off the NDP and BQ losses despite not having the best leader? I think so.
Seat By Seat Breakdowns Courtesy of Werner Antweiler's UBC Election Forecaster
Atlantic
LIB:21 (+1)
CPC:8 (-1)
NDP:3
Not much change here except Tobique-Mactaquac going back to the Liberals.
Quebec
Here is what Quebec Would look like next parliament according to Ipsos
BQ:32 (-19)
CPC:23 (+13)
LIB:19 (+6)
IND:1
Again Huge change here as the Liberal regain their traditional Federalist Seats and the Conservatives win in Rural Quebec.
Ontario
Ontario is kind of surprising but I'm going to assume this is correct as most of the seats are NDP to Liberal ones
LIB:59 (+5)
CPC:41 (+1)
NDP:6 (-6)
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Here we go again
CPC:16 (-4)
LIB:8 (+3)
NDP:4 (+1)
Alberta
No Change
CPC:28
British Columbia
CPC:18 (+1)
LIB:13 (+4)
NDP:5 (-5)
And lets keep the territories at
2 LIB
1 NDP
FINAL TOTAL
CPC: 134 (+10)
LIB: 122 (+19)
BQ: 32 (-19)
NDP: 19 (-10)
IND: 1
So once again, Stephen Harper and the Liberals Gain from the polls and the BLOC and the NDP lose seats for yet a second poll in a row, this means only one thing. Harper if he's looking at a majority government is not going to get it in an election he'll only succed at increasing his seat total but that's it. One thing is for certain now Bloc and NDP are definitely losing seats but could the liberals just gain off the NDP and BQ losses despite not having the best leader? I think so.
R.I.P: June Callwood 1924-2007
It is with great shame that we lost two great people from this world, the first Kurt Vonnegut, was one of the greatest novelists ever to live, and just today, June Callwood, Canada's Social Conscience has passed away at age 82. She had a remarkable life and because of her she faught for many things even before it was fashionable, she had a strong belief in what right, she tried to get health care and help for poor homeless youth, when that didn't work out. She founded a house for theme to stay in. She spoke out against sexual violence, domestic abuse and on teen pregnancy. She founded hostels for abused women and a center for Pregnant Teens. She also took in people who were dying of AIDS in 1988 when there was little options for them. Callwood used her riches for the benefit of the people society looked down upon. She fought for Women's Rights, Gay Rights and ever other social justice cause you can think of. Through it all, she never gave up. She fought for what she believed in and for that she was a great canadian and a wonderful woman. She will be missed.
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Breaking News: Louise Thibault resigns from the Bloc Quebecois Caucus!
Louise Thibault, as found out by macleans, has just said she is going to leave the Bloc Quebecois caucus, this is quite surprising considering that she was a bit of a social conservative, it is quite possible she might have left do to social issues but currently, we don't know anything.
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
In Defense of Belinda Stronach
I was upset with the news that Belinda Stronach is leaving politics today, she was a very interesting woman and I was glad to see someone with her magnitude (no pun intended) in the house of commons. However, Magna has just purchased Chrysler and she feels her skills could be better used in the business world. First of all, there is one thing I think of when describing Belinda Stronach. Courageous and above all she had balls (in the courageous sense I mean). When she crossed over to the Liberal Party she took many knocks and even after that period of discontent people bashed her with sexist comments and you know what, she could have cried, she could have ran off into a corner. But she didn't, she stood there and she took everything that people said about her and didn't pay attention to it. To me she is courageous for taking the stands she did and being true to herself. I know she's a controversial figure, but anybody who can still stand on their two feet and ignore those kinds of hateful comments is a great person in my book.
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